Guar Pre-Sowing Price Forecast

To help the farmers in taking a Sowing decision for Guar, the expected prices of Guar during Nov. 2015- Jan., 2016 (At the time of Harvest) have been forecasted. The price forecasting is taken up by Institute of Agribusiness Management, SKRAU, Bikaner under the aegis of NIAP under the project of Network Project on Market Intelligence.
The Institute of Agribusiness Management SKRAU, Bikaner analysed the past 10 years Wholesale Model prices data (Nov., 2015- Jan., 2016) that prevailed in Sriganganagar market and interacted with of experienced persons and traders of this market in order to assist the farmers in better decision making. The results of the sophisticated scientific analysis revealed that the prices of good quality guar at the time of arvesting (Nov. 2015- Jan.2016) will hover around Rs.4200-4500/- per quintal in Sriganganagar and Bikaner that is main market of Guar. 

PRICE AND TRADE OF GUAR

Price Movement of Guar
Guar bean has shelf life of more than 3 years without losing out on any of its properties or qualities. It requires the minimum maintenance and handling environment. Therefore, traders
 derivatives very much depend on the monsoon condition and its likely production.  or stockist store guar for as long as 6-7 years. However, prices of Guar bean as well as its

Factors Influencing Guar Price 1. Rainfall during sowing and critical     stages of growth 2. Area sown under the crop in Major  states like rajasthan, Haryana,  Punjab, Gujarat, etc. 3. Pattern of arrivals on a regular basis in markets like Jodhpur, Bikaner, Sriganganagar, Adampur, Bhiwani,   Siwani, etc. 4. Demand from millers or rocessors  and export demand 5. Carryover stock.

The prices are observed to be highly volatile during monsoon months due to market speculation. There is a good correlation between rainfall and production in Rajasthan as the Guar crop is rain-fed. The effect of rainfall on production is seen less in case of Haryana where Guar is an irrigated crop. The other factors like pattern of arrival, demand from millers and 
export also cause volatile price movement. 

Fluctuation in Spot prices 

The spot price of Guar seed for the last 7 years i.e., from 2007 to 2013 reflects high volatility of prices. The Spot price at Jaipur market and Sri Ganganagar are analyzed. The price fluctuates highly during monsoon period i.e. July to October. Guar seed traded at  Kishangarh Renwal market between INR 4000/qt. during Oct, 2012 to INR 15000/qt. in the month of December, 2012. In 2013 the highest price at Jaipur was recorded in the month of January at INR 14400/qt. and lowest recorded was INR 4200/qt. in August. Highest fluctuation in prices of Guar bean has been observed inthe year 2012. During the year 2012, prices at Sri Ganganagar market ranged from INR 7752/qt. to INR 28556.2/qt. Annual volatility (measured as Coefficient of Variation) in Mandi prices of Guar seed at different markets has been worked out and

Table Volatility in Guar bean Prices (C.V. in %)

year	RAJASTHAN                                                    HARYANA
	Ganganagar		Jaipur		Hanumangarh	Adampur		Fatehabad	Hissar
2007	5.5	6.0		5.9		6.0	6.7		6.9
2008	7.2	8.5		7.8		8.0	7.1		9.6
2009	20.9	19.3		22.0		21.1	21.5		20.2
2010	7.8	8.4		8.0		6.7	8.3		14.7
2011	29.4	50.6		36.1		28.1	29.5		25.4
2012	46.1	38.5		33.8		47.7	56.3		56.7
2013	29.2	39.5		28.3		24.5	23.5		56.6

 Source: Agmarknet 

Results of the analysis reflect that there was high volatility in prices of Guar bean at 

Hissar (56.7% and 56.6% in 2012 and 2013, respectively), Fatehabad (56.3% in 

2012), Jaipur (50.6% in 2011), Adampur (47.7% in 2012), Sri Ganganagar (46.1% in 

2012) and Hanumangarh (36.1% in 20011) markets, as indicated by the higher 

magnitude of CV in the respective markets. 

The price of Guar seed ranged from INR 4000/- per quintal to INR 11000/- quintal at 

Jaipur market in 2013. While for the same period the price range at Sri Ganganagar 

was from INR 7752/- per quintal to INR 28556/- per quintal. In the year 2013 the 

ranges of price at Jaipur and Sri Ganganagar market were INR 4361/- per quintal to 

INR 11482/- per quintal and INR 5004/- per quintal to INR 11743/- per quintal 

respectively. 

The high price fluctuation in Guar is mainly on account of higher fluctuation in area 

and production of Guar seed depending on the spread and level of monsoon rainfall in the Producing centers and the export demand of Guar gum from the importing 

countries. 

The report Guar 2015

The report “Guar Industry Outlook 2015 gives an overview of guar industry with respect to 2015 by giving future perspective with reference to past. The report can be an important information source for the stakeholders to make informed decision with respect to highly uncertain future of guar industry. 

The Guar Industry has evolved from being used for domestic and ruminant feed purpose to finding applications in industries. Owing to new technology, research and development the natural gum property of guar has varied applications from food, pharma industry to oil Industry to and is poised to grow.

 India is the major producer of Guar Seed followed by Pakistan and US. India's guar seed production is subjected to temporal fluctuations and it ranged between 2-18 lakh tons during 2005-06 to 2012-13. The area under cultivation of guar in India has not changed much from last 10 years even then the production has increased to a great extent due to increasing productivity. Rajasthan is a major producer of guar among Indian states. The State produces more than 70% of total guar seed produced in the country. Haryana is the second largest Guar producing state in India which contributes around 11% of total guar seed production. The productivity of guar in Haryana is much higher than the productivity in Rajasthan.

The processing of guar gives three products mainly viz. guar splits, churi and Korma. Guar split is used as a main products for different industrial uses while Churi and Korma are used as cattle feed. 

Nearly 75-80% of the Guar Gum or other derivatives of Guar seed are being produced in India and are exported mainly to USA and European countries. The value added derivatives of Guar seed are used by the various industries in India as well as abroad. Pakistan, Sudan and parts of USA are the other major Guar growing countries which produces nearly 20% of world guar seed production. 

India contributes for more than 80% of the world guar split supply. Total world supply of guar split is around 4-5 lakh tonnes in a normal year. It increased upto 8 lakh tonnes as has been recorded in the year 2003-04. The consumption of guar gum by Fast Hydrated Gum (FHG) industry was limited to around 30%. But at present the scenario has changed and the major consumer of guar gum is FHG industry.It is also seen that the demand from food industry has reduced to around 20% only from 50-55% prior to the year 2005. 

The market of guar has witnessed a shift which was quite unexpected for the participants in the industry. The mean price of guar from 2007 to 2011 was moving around Rs. 2000/qt. to Rs. 2100. But the high price fluctuations in the year 2012 the mean price of entire period (2007-2013) shifted to a new high at around Rs. 3600/qt. at Jaipur market. The similar price movement has been witnessed by almost all the markets to the same extent. Mean spot price of guar seed for the last two year was around Rs. 7600/qt. In 2013 the price is moving towards stability. 

Although AGMARK grades are defined, market is run by industry grade as defined by the traders. Due to the fact that the product has a very long storage life, most of the product purchased from the mandi by traders is released in a staggered way as per the demand for coming years. The price in the market (trader to miller) is influenced by the stock positions. Most of the traders store guar seed in their own storage structures instead of storing in accredited warehouses. Warehousing facilities for storage of guar seed is inadequate thus needs more storage structures to be built. The quality of the commodity is not maintained properly at the warehouses, and there should be strict regulations for the warehouses on quality issue. 

The market is constraint by lack of transparency and market information. In spite of the fact that guar has assumed importance of stratospheric level, there is no systematic collection and dissemination of market information to the participants. 

All India Coordinated Research Project on Arid Legumes including research in Guar as a mandate is the only research effort towards guar crop in the country. The progress in research and development have been made at CAZARI, Agriculture Research Station (ARS), Durgapura, and CCS Haryana Agricultural University. R&D efforts have focused to produce good quality seed of notified varieties of guar. The scientists are also developing extra early maturing variety. The R&D efforts coupled with training to the farmers for quality seed production is paving way for integrated lab to land transfer of technology. 

The future of guar industry is for specialized applications and derivatives. It is envisaged that the industry will move towards product differentiation to meet the specific and niche demand. For example- in food industry there is growing preference for bio-degradable, non-polluting and organic, products. This gives ample scope for leveraging investment, knowledge management, technology and partnerships for technology sharing and transfer.

click blow
http://www.ccsniam.gov.in/GUAR_Booklet_03122013.pdf

GUAR?

1) What is Guar? 

Guar or cluster bean (sometimes clusterbean) (Cyamopsis tetragonoloba (syn. C. psoralioides), Fabaceae)
is an annual legume plant that grows in semiarid regions. Guar is drought-tolerant and can be eaten green
like snap beans, fed to cattle or used as a green manure. It bears many bean-like pods, each of which
contains six to nine small, rounded seeds. The guar seed is typically made up of 40% to 46% germ, 38% to
45% endosperm, and 14% to 16% husk. The gum is obtained from the grounded endosperm.

2) What is Guar Gum?

Guar gum, a natural gum, is an edible thickening agent extracted from the guar bean. Guar beans have a
large endosperm which contains galactomannan gum which forms a gel in water. This is commonly known
as guar gum and is widely used Food and industrial applications. Guar gum has also proven a useful
substitute for locust bean gum.

3) How is Guar Gum prepared? 

Guar gum is prepared by removing the husk and germ portions before extracting the gum from the
endosperm.

4) What is Guar Gum mainly used as? 

Guar Gum is mainly used as natural thickener, emulsifier, stabilizer, bonding agent, hydrocolloid, gelling
agent, soil stabilizer, natural fiber, flocculants and fracturing agent.

5) What are the properties of Guar gum? 

Guar gum is soluble in hot and cold water but insoluble in most organic solvents and has strong hydrogen
bonding properties. It has excellent thickening, Emulsion, Stabilizing and film forming properties. It is
compatible with a variety of inorganic and organic substances including certain dyes and various
constituents of food.

6) How Guar gum powder is prepared? 

The seeds of Guar are split and the endosperm & germ is separated from the endosperm by sieving.
Through heating, grinding & polishing process the husk is separated from the endosperm halves and the
refined Guar Gum split are obtained. Through grinding process the refined Guar split are then treated and
converted into powder.

7) Which are the grades of Guar Gum Powder? 

There are two types of Guar Gum Powder
1) Food grade Guar Gum Powder
2) Industrial grade Guar Gum Powder

8) What are the factors to be considered for different grade Guar Gum Powder? 

The grade of Guar Gum Powder depends upon: active matter content, granulation, viscosity, pH and
degree of substitution.

9) What are the Physical Characteristics of Guar Gum Powder?

Guar Gum is a white to yellowish white powder and is nearly odorless. Fine finished Guar Gum Powder is
available in different viscosities and granulometries depending on the desired viscosity development and
applications.
10) In which food industries Guar gum is mainly used? 

Guar gum is mainly used in food industries for frozen food products, baked food products, dairy products,
sauces & salad preparations, confections, beverages, pet food etc. 11

11) In which other industries Guar gum is used? 

Guar gum is widely used in textile industry, paper industry, explosives industry, oil and gas drilling, mining,
construction, pharmaceutical, cosmetic industries and many other industries.

12) Which country mainly produced Guar? 

Guar crop is produced in the India, Pakistan, Sudan, USA, South Africa, Brazil, Malawi, Zaire and Australia.
13) Which country is the major producer of Guar? 

India is the major producer of Guar. India produces approximately 80% of world’s total production.
Pakistan follows India with 10 - 15% share in the world’s total production.

14) What is the height of Guar Plant? 

Guar plant is a rough to touch, bushy plant that has the ability to dwell even in the drought like conditions.
This small, purple flowered, pointed leaved plant ranges from 2-9 feet in height. It is consumed as a bean,
livestock fed and also in the form of manure in the fields.

15) What is the sowing and harvesting period of Guar? 

 The sowing period is in the months July and August right after the first shower of the monsoon.
 The harvesting period is in the months October and November.
Guar is clearly a rain dependent crop. If the rainfall levels fluctuate during the year, it strongly influences
the yield of the crop.

16) Who is the major exporter of Guar Gum? 

India, Pakistan, USA, Italy, Morocco, Spain, France, Greece, Germany are the major exporter of Guar Gum

17) Who is the major importer of Guar Gum? 

Canada, China, Chile, Australia, Austria, Brazil, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, USA, Ireland,
Sweden, Greece, Portugal, Mexico are the major importer of Guar gum.

18) What is thickening agent or thickener? Is Guar gum used as a thickening agent? 

Yes, Guar gum is widely used as a thickening agent.
Thickening agents, or thickeners, are substances which, when added to the mixture, increase its viscosity
without substantially modifying its other properties, like taste. They provide body, increase stability, and
improve suspending action. Thickening agents are often food additives.

Future of Guar Market

The market of guar has witnessed a shift which was quite unexpected for the participants in the industry. The mean price of guar from 2007 to 2011 was moving around Rs. 2000/qt./qt. to Rs. 2100. But the high price fluctuations in the year 2012 the mean price of entire period (2007-2013) shifted to a new high at around Rs. 3600/qt. at Jaipur market. Mean price of last two year was around Rs. 7600/qt. In 2013 the price is moving towards stability with minor fluctuations. 

In the year 2012-13, the export of guar split and gum from India to the world was around 3.3 lakh tonnes. It is estimated that the 20% of output of guar is being consumed within the country. The estimated total output of guar split and gum in the year 2012-13 was around 4 lakh tonnes. The compounded Annual Growth Rate of guar gum industry is estimated at 17.6%. Even if the industry grows with 15% CAGR, the expected size of the market in 2015 will be around 5.3 lakh tonnes.

The production of guar at commercial level has been started in many of the African countries which is expected to overcome the trouble caused to the industry due to fluctuations in the production in India. After the emergence of usage of guar in oil drilling industry, there had not been any new application emerged so far which indicates that the demand will be consistent without much fluctuations. 

Though India accounts for 75-80% of the total guar produced in the world (60-70% is cultivated in Rajasthan) lack of technology on value addition diminishes the profits that can be earned from the crop. Lack of awareness among the stakeholders regarding the commercial value of the crop is resulting in under-exploitation of the crop for export. Meager efforts are made for stabilization of guar seed productivity in the country, since guar is not considered widely as a commercial crop. Countries like USA and Australia are making concerted efforts to grow guar seed extensively and thus production is showing increasing trend in those countries. This may lead to loss of international market for Indian guar gum products.

The future of guar industry is for specialized applications and derivatives. It is envisaged that the industry will move towards product differentiation to meet the specific and niche demand. For example- in food industry there is growing preference for bio-degradable, non-polluting and organic, products. This gives ample scope for leveraging investment, knowledge management, technology and partnerships for technology sharing and transfer.